08 Dezember 2022

European Parliament seat projection (December 2022): S&D make significant gains, Liberals fall back

EP today3871146102176636445
Oct. 22524212710016979633538
Dec. 2251441369316679643735
Baseline scenario,
as of 06/12/2022.

Dynamic scenario,
as of 06/12/2022.

If you are a regular follower of the European Parliament seat projections on this blog, you will already be familiar with the phenomenon: If there is a sudden jump in the projection, that’s usually because some dramatic political developments have taken place within an individual member state – or because a new survey has been published in France. As French politics is so strongly focused on the person of the president, there are hardly any polls that ask about party political preferences outside the campaign period for parliamentary elections. When one does appear, as has now happened in early November for the first time in almost half a year, it often shows significant changes in the political mood. And since France is one of the largest member states, this of course also has a direct impact at the European level.

In the current case, the new French poll pushes the centre-left S&D group, which makes strong gains compared to the last European Parliament seat projection in October. In the national parliamentary election in June, the French PS had dropped so low that it no longer appeared in the seat projection. By contrast, the recent poll sees the party clearly above the national electoral threshold, which would add a significant number of seats to the S&D group. On the other hand, the Liberals, the Conservatives and the Left are falling back both in France and in the European Parliament seat projection.

S&D make strong gains

Still, France is not the only country where social democrats have performed well in recent weeks. S&D member parties also made some inroads in Germany, Spain, Hungary, Sweden, Denmark, and Lithuania.

Meanwhile, the Italian PD is still struggling over its future direction after being defeated in the national parliamentary election in September. Also in the Netherlands, Portugal, Austria and Croatia, social democratic parties suffered downturns in recent polls. Nevertheless, on balance the S&D have made significant gains and would now reach 136 seats (+9 compared to October).

EPP slightly down

The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) recently improved its polling in Germany and Croatia, among other countries. The Latvian EPP member JV, which won the national parliamentary election in early October, further increased its lead in the first poll published since then.

However, Italy’s FI continues to plummet after joining the right-wing government around Giorgia Meloni (FdI/ECR), and Spain’s PP appears to be paying an electoral price for its blockade of the renewal of the national judiciary body. The polling numbers of the French, Portuguese, and Danish EPP member parties also deteriorated in recent weeks. In total, the group is down to 166 seats (–3).

Liberals with significant losses

Even more significant is the downturn of the liberal Renew Europe group (RE). Its member parties are suffering setbacks not only in France, but also in Germany and Poland. The Swedish Liberalerna, whose support for the country’s new right-wing government has recently caused some trouble in the RE, wouldn’t even enter the European Parliament now.

The only RE member that has improved its polling during the last weeks is the Danish LA. Similar to other centrist parties, it performed very well in the national parliamentary election in early November and can now hope to win a seat in the European Parliament, too. But for the RE group as a whole, this is not enough. In the projection, the Liberals falls back to 93 seats (–7), their worst figure in two years.

Greens gaining ground

Further to the left of the political spectrum, the European Greens (who recently held their party congress in Copenhagen, which takes place only once per electoral period) are among the winners of the last weeks. Although their traditional powerhouse, the German Greens, is not making much headway, the French and Dutch Greens have improved their polling – as have the Czech Piráti, who are also members of the Greens/EFA group. Altogether, the group now stands at 44 seats (+2).

The Left, on the other hand, has suffered significant losses in the new French poll, but has made some inroads in several other countries, such as the Netherlands, Greece and Portugal. All in all, the group remains almost unchanged at 51 seats (–1).

ECR: FdI still on the rise

On the other side of the hemicycle, the Italian FdI are rising ever further within the right-wing ECR group. After their national election victory in September, the party of the new head of government, Giorgia Meloni, continues to soar in the polls and would now be the second strongest single national party in the European Parliament – ahead of Emmanuel Macron’s government alliance Ensemble (RE) and only minimally behind the German CDU/CSU (EPP). In Romania, Sweden and Slovakia, on the other hand, ECR member parties have been polling slightly worse in recent weeks, leaving the group as a whole unchanged at 79 seats (±0).

For the other right-wing group, ID, the last weeks have brought little news. While the Portuguese Chega and the Austrian FPÖ are making further inroads (the latter of them being the strongest national force in some polls now), the French RN does slightly worse in the new poll than in the national parliamentary election in June. Overall, the ID group therefore increases its number of seats only minimally to 64 (+1).

Non-attached and “other” parties

With RN struggling, Éric Zemmour’s far-right party Reconquête is making a small comeback in France. The party, which was founded only a year ago, seemed to be on the verge of collapse after it failed miserably in the national presidential election in April and the parliamentary election in June. However, according to the new poll, it would now again pass the national five-percent threshold by a minimal margin. If this result holds until the next European election, Reconquête is set to further fill the ranks of non-attached MEPs.

Meanwhile, Hungary’s Fidesz and Greece’s KKE fared somewhat worse in the latest polls. As a consequence, the overall number of non-attached MEPs increases only slightly in the projection (37 seats / +2).

Finally, the “other” parties (which are currently not represented in the European Parliament and cannot be clearly assigned to any political group) experience slight losses. Among them is the Dutch agrarian party BBB, which had grown rapidly in the course of the farmers’ protests this summer but seems to have passed its zenith by now. All in all, the “other” parties account for 35 seats (–3) in the projection.

The overview

The following table breaks down the distribution of seats in the projection by individual national parties. The table follows the baseline scenario, in which national parties are each attributed to their current parliamentary group (or to the parliamentary group of their European political party) and parties without a clear attribution are labelled as “others”.

In contrast, the dynamic scenario of the seat projection assigns all “other” parties to the respective parliamentary group to which they are politically closest, and also includes possible other future group changes of individual national parties. In the table, the changes in the dynamic scenario compared with the baseline scenario are indicated by coloured font and by a note mouseover text.

In the absence of pan-European electoral polls, the projection is based on an aggregation of national polls and election results from all member states. The specific data basis for each country is explained in the small print below the table. More information on the European parties and the political groups in the European Parliament can be found here.

EP today3871146102176636445
Oct. 22524212710016979633538
Dec. 2251441369316679643735

DE 5 Linke 18 Grüne
1 Piraten
1 Volt
18 SPD 6 FDP
2 FW
27 Union
1 Familie

13 AfD 2 Partei 1 Tier
FR 10 LFI 6 EELV 7 PS 23 Ens 10 LR
19 RN 4 Rec

14 PD 6 Az-IV 7 FI
26 FdI 7 Lega 15 M5S
1 Bildu
1 ERC 17 PSOE 1 Cʼs
19 PP 10 Vox
1 JxC 1 MP

5 Lewica 5 PL2050
16 KO
3 KP
20 PiS

3 Konf

14 PSD 3 USR 9 PNL

NL 2 PvdD
2 SP
3 GL
2 PvdA 5 VVD
3 D66
1 CU
2 JA21
EL 7 Syriza
8 ND 1 EL
1 KKE 1 MeRA25
BE 3 PTB 1 Groen
1 Ecolo
2 Vooruit
2 PS
2 MR
1 CD&V
1 LE
3 N-VA 3 VB


8 PS 1 IL 7 PSD
3 CH

3 Piráti

1 TOP09

4 DK

12 Fidesz
SE 2 V 1 MP 8 S 1 C
4 M
1 KD
4 SD

2 Grüne 5 SPÖ 2 Neos 4 ÖVP



4 PP
2 V
1 BV
DK 1 Enhl. 1 SF 6 S 2 V
1 LA
1 K

1 DD
1 M
FI 1 Vas 1 Vihreät 3 SDP 2 Kesk 4 Kok
3 PS


3 Smer-SSD 1 PS 2 OĽANO
1 Spolu
1 SaS 1 SR 1 REP 3 Hlas-SD

3 FF 4 FG



2 Možemo
1 Most
1 DP

1 LT

3 JV
1 NA

1 Prog
1 S!

1 SD 4 GS 2 SDS
1 N.Si


3 RE
1 KE

1 E200

1 Gréng


4 PL
2 PN

Development (baseline scenario)

06/12/2022 51 44 136 93 166 79 64 37 35
12/10/2022 52 42 127 100 169 79 63 35 38
20/08/2022 52 47 134 98 170 75 63 27 39
22/06/2022 54 44 133 101 165 77 64 31 36
25/04/2022 59 39 139 97 157 78 64 38 34
01/03/2022 53 36 139 98 158 78 62 45 36
04/01/2022 51 39 142 99 165 73 62 34 40
08/11/2021 50 42 144 96 155 75 72 36 35
13/09/2021 54 42 141 98 160 70 75 33 32
21/07/2021 52 45 133 97 167 71 74 31 35
24/05/2021 50 50 125 95 167 74 73 33 38
29/03/2021 52 46 136 96 164 71 73 34 33
02/02/2021 52 45 135 94 184 70 71 21 33
09/12/2020 52 47 136 93 188 67 73 20 29
12/10/2020 51 49 127 96 193 67 71 21 30
14/08/2020 50 53 145 88 196 65 64 20 24
25/06/2020 48 55 143 91 203 64 63 20 18
26/04/2020 47 53 151 88 202 66 66 19 13
10/03/2020 51 58 138 88 188 67 82 21 12
09/01/2020 49 58 135 93 186 65 82 24 13
23/11/2019 48 57 138 99 181 62 82 22 16
23/09/2019 49 61 139 108 175 56 82 24 11
30/07/2019 47 64 138 108 180 57 82 22 7
EP 2019 40 68 148 97 187 62 76 27

The “EP 2019” line indicates the distribution of seats as of July 2, 2019, when the European Parliament was constituted following the election in May 2019.
The table shows the values of the baseline scenario without the United Kingdom. An overview of the values including the United Kingdom for the period up to January 2020 can be found here. An overview of older projections from the 2014-2019 electoral period is here.
The full names of the parliamentary groups and of the national parties appear as mouseover text when the mouse pointer is held motionless on the designation in the table for a short time. If a party is attributed to a different parliamentary group in the dynamic scenario than in the baseline scenario, this is also indicated in the mouseover text.

Attribution of national parties to parliamentary groups

Baseline scenario: For the projection, parties that are already represented in the European Parliament are assigned to their current parliamentary group, unless they have explicitly declared that they will change group after the next European election. National parties that are not currently represented in the European Parliament, but belong to a European political party, are attributed to the parliamentary group of that party. In cases where the members of a national electoral list are expected to split up and join different political groups after the election, the projection uses the allocation that seems most plausible in each case (see below). Parties for which the allocation to a specific parliamentary group is unclear are classified as “others” in the baseline scenario.
According to the Rules of Procedure of the European Parliament, at least 23 MEPs from at least a quarter of the member states are required to form a parliamentary group. Groupings marked with an asterisk (*) would not currently meet these conditions according to the projection. They would therefore have to win over additional MEPs after the European elections in order to be able to constitute themselves as a parliamentary group.
Dynamic scenario: In the dynamic scenario, all “other” parties are assigned to an already existing parliamentary group (or to the group of non-attached members). In addition, the dynamic scenario also takes into account other group changes that appear politically plausible, even if the respective parties have not yet been publicly announced them. To highlight these changes from the baseline scenario, parties that are assigned to a different parliamentary group in the dynamic scenario are marked in the table with the colour of that group; moreover, the name of the group appears in the mouseover text. The attributions in the dynamic scenario are based on a subjective assessment of the political orientation and strategy of the parties and can therefore be quite uncertain in detail. From an overall perspective, however, the dynamic scenario may be closer to the real distribution of seats after the next European election than the baseline scenario.

Data source

If available, the most recent poll of voting intentions for the European Parliament is used to calculate the seat distribution for each country. In case that more than one poll has been published, the average of all polls from the two weeks preceding the most recent poll is calculated, taking into account only the most recent poll from each polling institute. The cut-off date for taking a survey into account is the last day of its fieldwork, if known, otherwise the day of its publication.
For countries where there are no specific European election polls or where the last such poll was taken more than a fortnight ago, the most recent poll available for the national parliamentary election or the average of all polls for the national or European Parliament from the two weeks preceding the most recent poll available is used instead. For countries where there are no recent polls for parliamentary elections, polls for presidential elections are used instead, where appropriate, with the polling figures for the presidential candidates assigned to the parties of the candidates (this may concern France in particular). For member states for which no recent polls can be found at all, the results of the last national or European elections are used.
As a rule, the national poll results of the parties are directly converted to the total number of seats in the country. For countries where the election is held in regional constituencies without proportional representation (currently Belgium and Ireland), regional polling data is used where available. Where this is not the case, the number of seats is still calculated for each constituency individually, but using the overall national polling data in each case. National electoral thresholds are taken into account in the projection where they exist.
In Belgium, constituencies in the European election correspond to language communities, while polls are usually conducted at the regional level. The projection uses polling data from Wallonia for the French-speaking community and polling data from Flanders for the Dutch-speaking community. For the German-speaking community, it uses the result of the last European election (1 seat for CSP).
In countries where it is common for several parties to run as an electoral alliance on a common list, the projection makes a plausibility assumption about the composition of these lists. In the table, such multi-party lists are usually grouped under the name of the electoral alliance or of its best-known member party. Sometimes, however, the parties of an electoral alliance split up after the election and join different political groups in the European Parliament. In this case, the parties are listed individually and a plausibility assumption is made about the exact distribution of seats on the joint list. This concerns the following parties: Italy: SI (place 1 and 3 on the list) and EV (2, 4); Spain: Más País (1-2), Compromís (3) and Equo (4); ERC (1, 3-4), Bildu (2) and BNG (5); PNV (1) and CC (2); Netherlands: CU (1, 3-4) and SGP (2, 5); Hungary: Fidesz (1-6, from 8) and KDNP (7); Bulgaria: DSB (1-2) and ZD (3); Slovakia: PS (1) and Spolu (2).
Since there is no electoral threshold for European elections in Germany, parties can win a seat in the European Parliament with less than 1 per cent of the vote. Since German polling institutes do not usually report values for very small parties, the projection includes them based on their results at the last European election (2 seats each for PARTEI and FW, 1 seat each for Tierschutzpartei, ödp, Piraten, Volt and Familienpartei). Only if a small party achieves a better value in current polls than in the last European election, the poll rating is used instead.
In Italy, a special rule makes it easier for minority parties to enter the European Parliament. In the projection, the Südtiroler Volkspartei is therefore always listed with its result at the last European election (1 seat).
The following overview lists the data source for each member state. The dates refer to the last day of the fieldwork; if this is not known, to the day of publication of the polls:
Germany: national polls, 24/11-3/12/2022, source: Wikipedia.
France: national polls, 4/11/2022, source: Europe Elects.
Italy: national polls, 21/11-5/12/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Spain: national polls, 20/11-2/12/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Poleand: national polls, 21/11-4/12/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Romania: national polls, 22/11/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Netherlands: national polls, 14-28/11/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Greece: national polls, 12-22/11/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Belgium, French-speaking community: regional polls (Wallonia) for the national parliamentary election, 29/11/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Belgium, Dutch-speaking community: regional polls (Flanders) for the national parliamentary election, 29/11/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Belgium, German-speaking community: European election results, 26/5/2019.
Portugal: national polls, 17-20/11/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Czech Republic: national polls, 31/10-4/11/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Hungary: national polls, 22-28/11/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Sweden: national polls, 17/11-1/12/2022 source: Wikipedia.
Austria: national polls, 1/12/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Bulgaria: national parliamentary election results, 2/10/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Denmark: national polls, 27/11/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Finland: national polls, 1-11/11/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Slovakia: national polls, 28/11/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Irleand: national polls, 23/11-2/12/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Croatia: national polls, 25/11-4/12/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Lithuania: national polls, 8-19/11/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Latvia: national polls, 19/10/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Slovenia: national polls, 11-24/11/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Estonia national polls, 17-28/11/2022, source: Wikipedia.
Cyprus: national parliamentary election results, 30/5/2021, source: Wikipedia.
Luxembourg: national polls, 7/6/2021, source: Europe Elects.
Malta: national polls, 1/12/2022, source: Malta Today.
Translation: Yannik Uhlenkotte / Manuel Müller.
Images: All graphs: Manuel Müller.

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