Who will be the members of the next EU Commission? A look at the national debates ahead of the European election

Deutsch

By Manuel Müller

The new Commission could have significantly more EPP members than the current one. But many nominations remain to be decided.

Recently, the Commission has been close to gender parity. What the ratio will look like in the future is still largely unclear.

It is a European election year, and that means not only the election of a new European Parliament in June, but also of a new European Commission in the autumn. Like in any parliamentary democracy, the Commission is elected by the European Parliament (Art. 17 (7) (3) TEU). However, unlike in any parliamentary democracy, the right of nomination lies with the Council, which in turn adopts the list of proposed commissioners “by common accord with the [Commission] President-elect” and “on the basis of the suggestions made by Member States” (Art. 17 (7) (2) TEU).

Member states’ suggestions

In practice, this means that each national government proposes a commissioner, but the European Parliament can veto these proposals – and in fact does so time and again. But if MEPs reject a candidate, the replacement commissioner is also proposed by the national government. A tentative attempt by the Parliament to put forward a name on its own failed in 2014.

Somewhat more influence is exerted by the president-elect, as he or she is also responsible for the “internal organisation” of the Commission – in particular, the allocation of portfolios to the various commissioners. Governments wishing to secure an attractive policy area for their nominee are therefore well advised to consult the president-elect in advance.

In both 2014 and 2019, the president-elect called on governments to propose not just one, but several candidates to choose from, paying particular attention to gender balance. However, few member states complied. As a result, there have always been more men than women in the Commission, although the ratio has improved somewhat over time.

Always a mixed bag of party affiliations

The strong role of national governments in appointing the Commission also influences its partisan composition. In parliamentary democracies, the party affiliations of government members usually reflect the parliamentary majority, while opposition parties are not represented. Party affiliations in the European Commission, on the other hand, are always a mixed bag, roughly reflecting the composition of the member state governments at the time of its appointment.

However, the Commission is not simply a copy of the European Council in terms of party affiliation. In many member states, it is customary for the strongest governing party to appoint the commissioner. In other countries, however, the Commission post is also seen as a bargaining chip in the formation of national coalitions, giving smaller parties a chance. And some national governments are even prepared to nominate members of opposition parties as commissioners if that means more influence for their country. The exact composition of the Commission will therefore always depend on the specific situation in each member state.

The overview

But who will be in the new Commission? Of course, nothing is set in stone yet: a lot can happen before the Commission is actually appointed in the summer. In some countries, national elections will take place before then, so it is not even clear which government will make the proposal. In many other member states, however, the debate on who should be proposed as commissioner has already begun. In some cases, names have already been announced, in others it is at least clear which party will make the proposal.

The following table provides an overview of the possible candidates and the national constellations that will influence the proposal. In cases where no new names have been publicly discussed, the table shows the current commissioner in grey, if his or her party is still in the national government and a further term is possible. Otherwise, the table shows “NN”.

This article and table will be updated as new information becomes available. The updated article can be found at this link.

State	Name	National government	Explanatory note
DE	Ursula von der Leyen CDU/EPP NN Grüne/EGP	SPD (PES), Grüne (EGP), FDP (ALDE)	If von der Leyen runs as the EPP’s top candidate and wins a majority in the European Parliament, the German government will support her re-election as Commission president, even though her party is now in opposition at national level. Otherwise, according to the coalition agreement, the Greens will nominate the German commissioner.
FR	Thierry Breton no party (RE/ALDE-related)	RE (close to ALDE), HOR (close to ALDE), MoDem (EDP)	As the largest governing party, RE will also propose the commissioner.
IT	Francesco Lollobrigida FdI/ECR Raffaele Fitto FdI/ECR Luca Zaia Lega/ID Antonio Tajani FI/EPP	FdI (ECR), Lega (ID), FI (EPP)	The largest governing party, the FdI (ECR), apparently intends to propose agriculture minister Lollobrigida as a commissioner – but he himself would prefer to stay in Rome. EU minister Fitto would be interested in the post, but government leader Giorgia Meloni is reluctant to let him go. Previous media reports had Venetian regional president Zaia as the favourite for the Commission post, but he has said he wants to keep his current job. Foreign minister and former commissioner Tajani would probably be interested, but as leader of the smallest coalition party he cannot claim the post.
ES	Teresa Ribera PSOE/PES	PSOE (PES), Sumar (EL, EGP)	Environment minister Ribera is the favourite to succeed Josep Borrell, who will step down as commissioner in 2024.
PL	Rafał Trzaskowski PO/EPP	PO (EPP), PSL (EPP), PL2050 (close to ALDE), L (close to PES)	It is not yet clear who the Polish government will put forward. Warsaw mayor Trzaskowski is considered an option, but he would probably also like to run in the 2025 Polish presidential election.
RO	Adina-Ioana Vălean PNL/EPP	PSD (PES), PNL (EPP)
NL	NN NN	acting: VVD (ALDE), D66 (ALDE), CDA (EPP), CU (ECPM)	Since the Dutch general election in November 2023, the government is in office on a caretaker basis only. The commissioner is not expected to be proposed until a new government has been formed. Another term of office for current commissioner Wopke Hoekstra (CDA/EPP) is possible if his party remains in government or he is supported by parties of a similar orientation (e.g. NSC or BBB, which are both close to the EPP).
EL	Margarítis Schinás ND/EPP	ND (EPP)	As the governing party, ND (EPP) will also propose the commissioner.
BE	NN NN	Open VLD (ALDE), MR (ALDE), PS (PES), Vooruit (PES), CD&V (EPP), Ecolo (EGP), Groen (EGP)	The next Belgian parliamentary election will be held on 9 June, at the same time as the European election. It is unlikely that the current commissioner, Didier Reynders (MR/ALDE), will be proposed for another term. Reynders himself therefore intends to apply as secretary general of the Council of Europe instead.
PT	NN NN	acting: PS (PES)	On 10 March 2024, the Portuguese parliament will be re-elected. The resulting government will propose the commissioner. Another term for the current commissioner, Elisa Ferreira (PS/PES), is possible if her party remains in government.
CZ	Marcel Kolaja Piráti/PPEU Jozef Síkela STAN/EPP-related Danuše Nerudová STAN/EPP-related Jiří Šedivý no party	ODS (ECR), TOP09 (EPP), KDU-ČSL (EPP), STAN (close to EPP), Piráti (PPEU)	According to the coalition agreement, Piráti (PPEU) and STAN (close to the EPP) will propose the commissioner. Piráti has already suggested MEP Kolaja. On the STAN side, industry minister Síkela, former presidential candidate Nerudová and the head of the European Defence Agency, Šedivý, are considered possible candidates.
HU	NN Fidesz/–	Fidesz (–), KDNP (EPP)	As the largest governing party, Fidesz (–) will again nominate the commissioner. However, a second term for the current commissioner, Olivér Várhelyi, would probably be rejected by the European Parliament.
SE	Jessica Roswell M/EPP Carl Bildt M/EPP Tobias Billström M/EPP Johann Forssell M/EPP	M (EPP), KD (EPP), L (ALDE)	EU minister Roswell is the favourite for the Commission post. Possible alternatives are former prime minister Bildt, foreign minister Billström, or trade minister Forssell.
AT	Karoline Edtstadler ÖVP/EPP Alexander Schallenberg ÖVP/EPP	ÖVP (EPP), Grüne (EGP)	EU minister Edtstadler and foreign minister Schallenberg are the favourites to succeed Johannes Hahn (ÖVP/EPP), who will step down as commissioner in 2024.
BG	Iliana Ivanova GERB/EPP	GERB (EPP), PP (close to ALDE), ZD (EGP)	Commissioner Ivanova only took office in 2023 as part of a national cabinet reshuffle, and is therefore likely to be proposed again in 2024.
DK	Dan Jørgensen S/PES Lars Løkke Rasmussen M/ALDE-related	S (PES), V (ALDE), M (close to ALDE)	Climate minister Jørgensen (S/PES) and foreign minister Løkke Rasmussen (M/ALDE-related) are possible candidates.
FI	NN KOK/EPP	KOK (EPP), PS (ECR), SFP (ALDE), KD (EPP)	As the largest governing party, KOK (EPP) will also propose the commissioner.
SK	Maroš Šefčovič no party (Smer-related)	Smer (–), Hlas (–), SNS (ID-related)
IE	Mairead McGuinness FG/EPP Charlie McConalogue FF/ALDE	FG (EPP), FF (ALDE), GP (EGP)	McGuiness is seeking another term as commissioner, but agriculture minister McConalogue is also interested in the post.
HR	Dubravka Šuica HDZ/EPP	HDZ (EPP)	As the governing party, HDZ (EPP) will also propose the commissioner.
LT	NN NN	TS-LKD (EPP), LRLS (ALDE)	The next Lithuanian commissioner is still up in the air. Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė (TS-LKD/EPP) has ruled out that she will take the post herself.
LV	Valdis Dombrovskis JV/EPP Krišjānis Kariņš JV/EPP	JV (EPP), P (EGP), ZZS (ALDE-related)	Dombrovskis wants to remain a member of the Commission, but former prime minister Kariņš is also interested in the post.
SI	Tanja Fajon SD/PES NN GS/ALDE-related	GS (close to ALDE), SD (PES), L (EL)	Foreign minister Fajon is considered a possible candidate for the post of High Representative. However, as the largest governing party, the GS (close to ALDE) could also claim the Commission post.
EE	Urmas Paet RE/ALDE	RE (ALDE), SDE (PES), E200 (close to ALDE)	According to the coalition agreement, RE (ALDE) will nominate the commissioner. MEP Paet is under consideration for the post.
CY	Stélla Kyriakídes DISY/EPP	DISY (EPP), DIKO (PES-related)
LU	Christophe Hansen CSV/EPP Nicolas Schmit LSAP/PES	CSV (EPP), DP (ALDE)	The Luxembourg government apparently intends to propose former MEP Hansen as commissioner. However, current EU commissioner Schmit will be the lead candidate of the PES. Even if he does not become Commission president, he would therefore have a good chance of winning an important Commission post, such as vice-president. This could be a reason for the government to put him forward again, even though Schmit’s party is now in opposition.
MT	Chris Fearne PL/PES	PL (PES)	The Maltese government apparently intends to propose deputy prime minister Fearne as a member of the Commission.

Pictures: Own graphs.