The 2024 EU Commission

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By Manuel Müller
This text will be updated as new events occur. Last update: 25 July 2024.

The new Commission is likely to have significantly more EPP members than the current one.

In recent years, the Commission has been close to gender parity. For the future, a male bias is emerging.

It is a European election year, and that means not only the election of a new European Parliament in June, but also of a new European Commission in the autumn. Like in any parliamentary democracy, the Commission is elected by the European Parliament (Art. 17 (7) (3) TEU). However, unlike in any parliamentary democracy, the right of nomination lies with the Council, which in turn adopts the list of proposed commissioners “by common accord with the [Commission] President-elect” and “on the basis of the suggestions made by Member States” (Art. 17 (7) (2) TEU).

Member states’ suggestions

In practice, this means that each national government proposes a commissioner, but the European Parliament can veto these proposals – and in fact does so time and again. But if MEPs reject a candidate, the replacement commissioner is also proposed by the national government. A tentative attempt by the Parliament to put forward a name on its own failed in 2014.

Somewhat more influence is exerted by the president-elect, as he or she is also responsible for the “internal organisation” of the Commission – in particular, the allocation of portfolios to the various commissioners. Governments wishing to secure an attractive policy area for their nominee are therefore well advised to consult with Ursula von der Leyen (CDU/EPP) in advance, who was re-elected as Commisison president on 18 July. (However, the major European parties also play an indirect role here, as they claim certain portfolios for themselves. Since the President needs the votes of these parties’ political groups in Parliament, this restricts his or her room for manoeuvre.)

As in 2014 and 2019, President-elect von der Leyen has called on governments to propose not just one, but several candidates to choose from, paying particular attention to gender balance. In the past, however, only few member states have complied with this request. As a result, there have always been more men than women in the Commission, although the ratio has improved over time.

Always a mixed bag of party affiliations

The strong role of national governments in appointing the Commission also influences its partisan composition. In parliamentary democracies, the party affiliations of government members usually reflect the parliamentary majority, while opposition parties are not represented. Party affiliations in the European Commission, on the other hand, are always a mixed bag, roughly reflecting the composition of the member state governments at the time of its appointment.

However, the Commission is not simply a copy of the European Council in terms of party affiliation. In many member states, it is customary for the strongest governing party to appoint the commissioner. In other countries, however, the Commission post is also seen as a bargaining chip in the formation of national coalitions, giving smaller parties a chance. And some national governments are even prepared to nominate members of opposition parties as commissioners if that means more influence for their country. The exact composition of the Commission will therefore always depend on the specific situation in each member state.

The overview

But who will be in the new Commission? Of course, nothing is set in stone yet: a lot can happen before the Commission is actually appointed in the summer. In some countries, national elections will take place before then, so it is not even clear which government will make the proposal. In many other member states, however, the debate on who should be proposed as commissioner has already begun. In some cases, names have already been announced, in others it is at least clear which party will make the proposal.

The following table provides an overview of the possible candidates and the national constellations that will influence the proposal. In cases where no new names have been publicly discussed, the table shows the current commissioner in grey, if his or her party is still in the national government and a further term is possible. Otherwise, the table shows “NN”. Candidates who have already been publicly designated by their government are highlighted in colour.

For each candidate, his or her area of expertise or preferred portfolio is indicated. “Broad profile” indicates that a candidate either has experience in several different areas or has focused specifically on EU integration policy. If a portfolio has already been assigned, it is shown in italics.

State	Name	National government	Explanatory note
DE	Ursula von der Leyen CDU/EPP Commission president	SPD (PES), Grüne (EGP), FDP (ALDE)	As the EPP lead candidate, von der Leyen was nominated by the European Council and elected by the European Parliament for a second term as Commission president. According to the coalition agreement, the German government supports the European lead candidates system. It therefore supported von der Leyen’s re-election, even though her party is now in opposition at national level. If no lead candidate from Germany had become Commission president, the coalition agreement stipulates that the Grüne (EGP) would have proposed the German commissioner.
FR	Thierry Breton –/ALDE-related Economy	acting: RE (close to ALDE), HOR (close to ALDE), MoDem (EDP)	French President Emmanuel Macron (RE/close to ALDE) wants single market commissioner Breton to stay for another term in the Commission. French law does not clearly state whether the commissioner is proposed by the French president or by the government. If Macron’s party is ousted from the government following the French legislative elections on 30 June/7 July, difficult negotiations could ensue. However, this does not seem likely.
IT	Raffaele Fitto FdI/ECR Broad profile Giancarlo Giorgetti Lega/ID Economy, finance Francesco Lollobrigida FdI/ECR Broad profile, agriculture Antonio Tajani FI/EPP Broad profile	FdI (ECR), Lega (ID), FI (EPP)	Numerous names are circulating for the next Italian commissioner. The favourite is EU minister Fitto, who would be interested in the post, but is also important for prime minister Giorgia Meloni (FdI/ECR) as a member of her own cabinet. An alternative could be finance minister Giorgetti, who would apparently like the job but belongs to the smaller coalition partner Lega. Agriculture minister Lollobrigida is also being discussed, but he would prefer to stay in Rome. Foreign minister and former commissioner Tajani would probably be interested in returning to Brussels, but as leader of the smallest coalition party he cannot claim the post. The Venetian regional president Luca Zaia (Lega/ID), who was seen as the favourite for the Commission post in previous media reports, has ruled himself out.
ES	Teresa Ribera PSOE/PES Climate/energy	PSOE (PES), Sumar (EL, EGP)	Environment minister Ribera is the clear favourite to become the next commissioner from Spain. The Spanish government wants to position her as a Commission vice-president with an environment or energy portfolio.
PL	Piotr Serafin PO/EPP Enlargement Bartosz Arłukowicz PO/EPP Health Rafał Trzaskowski PO/EPP Broad profile	PO (EPP), PSL (EPP), PL2050 (close to ALDE), L (close to PES)	Foreign minister Radosław Sikorski (PO/EPP) was considered a possible candidate for the planned new post of an EU defence commissioner. After the election, however, he said that he would not seek the post. As an alternative, Poland’s current EU permanent representative Serafin could aim for the enlargement portfolio. Other possible options are MEP Arłukowicz as well as Warsaw mayor Trzaskowski, although the latter would probably also like to run in the 2025 Polish presidential election. MEP Jacek Saryusz-Wolski (PiS/ECR) has been proposed as a commissioner by his own party, but as an opposition candidate he has no chance of winning the support of the government.
RO	Klaus Iohannis PNL/EPP Broad profile Mihai Tudose PSD/PES Broad profile	PSD (PES), PNL (EPP)	Iohannis, whose term as national president expires at the end of 2024, has been a candidate for NATO secretary-general and would also have been interested in the presidency of the European Council. Since these posts will now go to Mark Rutte (VVD/ALDE) and António Costa (PS/PES), Iohannis could move to the Commission instead. However, it is also possible that prime minister Marcel Ciolacu (PSD/PES) will propose a member of his own party, such as former primer minister and current MEP Tudose. Ramona Chiriac, head of the Commission’s representation in Romania, also seems to have been interested in the post, but was rejected by Ciolacu.
NL	Wopke Hoekstra CDA/EPP Economy, finance	PVV (ID), VVD (ALDE), BBB (close to EPP), NSC (close to EPP)	Following the Dutch general election in November 2023, PVV (ID), VVD (ALDE), NSC (EPP-related) and BBB (EPP-related) have formed a new government in July 2024. Although current commissioner Hoekstra’s party, the CDA (EPP), is now in the opposition, the new government has proposed him for another term. Previously, MEP and trade minister Liesje Schreinemacher (VVD/ALDE) had also been mentioned as a possible candidate.
EL	Margarítis Schinás ND/EPP Broad profile, home affairs Apóstolos Tzitzikóstas ND/EPP Broad profile, economy Níki Keraméos ND/EPP Broad profile Giórgos Gerapetrítis ND/EPP Broad profile, foreign affairs	ND (EPP)	The current Commission vice-president Schinás would like to get a second term. Alternative options are Central Macedonian regional governor (and vice-president of the European Committee of the Regions) Tzitzikóstas, labour minister Keraméos, and foreign minister Gerapetrítis.
BE	Didier Reynders MR/ALDE Broad profile Frank Vandenbroucke Vooruit/PES Health	acting: Open VLD (ALDE), MR (ALDE), PS (PES), Vooruit (PES), CD&V (EPP), Ecolo (EGP), Groen (EGP)	The Belgian parliamentary election was held on 9 June, at the same time as the European election. The next coalition is likely to consist of N-VA (EFA), Vooruit (PES), CD&V (EPP), MR (ALDE) and Les Engagés (EDP). The current commissioner Reynders applied for the post of secretary general of the Council of Europe in the first half of 2024. Since this application failed, he has expressed his interest in a second term as commissioner. Health minister Vandenbroucke has been mentioned as a possible health commissioner, but seems to prefer to remain at the national level.
PT	Miguel Poiares Maduro PSD/EVP Broad profile, justice Maria Luísa Albuquerque PSD/EVP Finance Jorge Moreira da Silva PSD/EVP Climate/energy, foreign affairs	PSD (EPP) CDS-PP (EPP)	The alliance of PSD and CDS-PP won a plurality of votes in the Portuguese parliament elections in March 2024 and formed a minority government, which will propose the commissioner. Paulo Rangel (PSD/EPP) was seen as a possible candidate for commissioner, but instead took up the post of foreign minister. Possible alternatives are the legal scholar and former minister for regional development Poiares Maduro, former finance minister Albuquerque and high-ranking UN official Moreira da Silva.
CZ	Jozef Síkela STAN/EPP-related Energy	ODS (ECR), TOP09 (EPP), KDU-ČSL (EPP), STAN (close to EPP), Piráti (PPEU)	The Czech government has proposed industry minister Síkela (who may be interested in the energy portfolio) as a commissioner. This came after a prolonged national debate. According to the coalition agreement, Piráti (PPEU) and STAN (close to the EPP) had the right to propose the commissioner. While the Piráti early suggested their MEP Marcel Kolaja, prime minister Petr Fiala (ODS/ECR) apparently preferred a STAN nominee. Next to Síkela, former presidential candidate Danuše Nerudová (STAN/close to EPP) was seen as a likely candidate. The head of the European Defence Agency, Jiří Šedivý (–), the Czech permanent representative, Edita Hrdá (–), and the Czech government envoy for the reconstruction of Ukraine, Tomáš Kopečný (–), were also in the running.
HU	Olivér Várhelyi Fidesz/– Broad profile Enikő Győri Fidesz/– Broad profile János Bóka no party Broad profile, justice	Fidesz (close to ID), KDNP (close to ID	As the largest governing party, Fidesz (close to ID) will again nominate the commissioner. However, a second term for the current commissioner Várhelyi could be rejected by the European Parliament. MEP Győri or EU minister Bóka are seen as possible options to replace him.
SE	Jessika Roswall M/EPP Broad profile, economy	M (EPP), KD (EPP), L (ALDE)	The Swedish government has proposed EU minister Roswall as the next commissioner. Roswall had long been the favourite for the position. Former prime minister Carl Bildt foreign minister Tobias Billström, or trade minister Johann Forssell (all M/EPP) were considered possible alternatives.
AT	Magnus Brunner ÖVP/EPP Finance Othmar Karas ÖVP/EPP Broad profile Karoline Edtstadler ÖVP/EPP Broad profile, home affairs Alexander Schallenberg ÖVP/EPP Broad profile	ÖVP (EPP), Grüne (EGP)	Finance minister Brunner is the senior governing party ÖVP’s favourite to succeed Johannes Hahn (ÖVP/EPP), who will step down as commissioner in 2024. However, Brunner is rejected by the junior coalition partner Grüne (EGP), who have suggested to nominate former MEP Karas instead. EU minister Edtstadler and foreign minister Schallenberg are seen as potential alternatives, but are also rejected by the Grüne. The nomination must also be approved by the main committee of the Austrian parliament, which is not guaranteed as Austria is holding national elections in September. Therefore, a non-partisan personality could be nominated as a compromise solution. The SPÖ (PES), currently in opposition, is also claiming the Commission post, but is unlikely to succeed.
BG	NN NN	acting: independent caretaker cabinet	The Bulgarian governing coalition of PP (close to ALDE), GERB (EPP) and ZD (EGP) collapsed in March 2024. After the new elections that took place at the same time as the European election, complicated coalition talks are ongoing. If her party returns to government, current commissioner Iliana Ivanova (GERB/EPP) could be proposed again. It is also possible that the coalition talks will fail and Bulgaria will go to the polls again, further complicating the nomination of the commissioner.
DK	Dan Jørgensen S/PES Climate Lars Løkke Rasmussen M/ALDE-related Broad profile Morten Bødskov S/PES Broad profile	S (PES), V (ALDE), M (close to ALDE)	Climate minister Jørgensen (S/PES), foreign minister Løkke Rasmussen (M/ALDE-related) and industry minister Morten Bødskov (S/PES) are possible candidates.
FI	Henna Virkkunen KOK/EPP Broad profile, economy	KOK (EPP), PS (ECR), SFP (ALDE), KD (EPP)	The Finnish government has announced that it will propose MEP Virkkunen as commissioner. It was clear that, as the largest governing party, KOK (EPP) would propose the commissioner, and prime minister Petteri Orpo (KOK/EPP) had signaled that he wanted the next commissioner to have run in the European election. Virkkunen had therefore long been seen as the most plausible candidate. After the election, Mika Aaltola, director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and a former independent presidential candidate, had also claimed to have a “mandate” to be commissioner. Aaltola had run as a KOK candidate in the election and had won the most preferential votes for the party.
SK	Maroš Šefčovič no party (Smer-related) Broad profile	Smer (–), Hlas (–), SNS (close to ID)	The Slovakian government has announced announced that it will propose the experienced Commission vice-president Šefčovič for a fourth term. Previously, former foreign minister Miroslav Lajčák, currently the EU’s special representative for the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue and the Western Balkans, had been seen as a possible alternative.
IE	Michael McGrath FF/ALDE Finance	FG (EPP), FF (ALDE), GP (EGP)	The Irish government has proposed finance minister McGrath as commissioner. There was an unwritten agreement within the government that the next commissioner would be nominated by the smaller coalition partner FF (ALDE). MEP Barry Andrews (FF/ALDE) and agriculture minister Charlie McConalogue (FF/ALDE) were seen as possible candidates. Current commissioner Mairead McGuinness (FG/EPP) was also interested in a second term. Former head of government Leo Varadkar (FG/EPP) and FF leader Micheál Martin had both ruled themselves out.
HR	Dubravka Šuica  HDZ/EPP Broad profile	HDZ (EPP), DP (close to ECR)	The current commissioner Šuica is expected to be nominated for a second term of office. In the European election, she won a mandate, which she did not take up in order to be able to continue in her Commission post.
LT	Gabrielius Landsbergis TS-LKD/EPP Foreign affairs, defence	TS-LKD (EPP), LRLS (ALDE)	To be officially proposed, a commissioner-candidate must be nominated by the Lithuanian government and supported by both the national parliament and the president, Gitanas Nausėda (–). Foreign minister Landsbergis is considered a possible candidate for a post in foreign and security policy, such as defence commissioner. However, president Nausėda has said he sees better candidates than Landsbergis, and that he would prefer Lithuania to get an economic portfolio. Prime minister Ingrida Šimonytė (TS-LKD/EPP) supports Landsbergis and has ruled out that she will take a Commission post herself. EPP leader Manfred Weber (CSU/EPP) has also declared his support for Landsbergis.
LV	Valdis Dombrovskis JV/EPP Economy	JV (EPP), P (EGP), ZZS (close to ALDE)	Current Commission vice-president Dombrovskis has been proposed by the Latvian government for a third term in the Commission. Krišjānis Kariņš (JV/EPP) had also been interested in the post, but lost his chances after he had to resign  as foreign minister in late March following an expenses scandal.
SI	Tomaž Vesel no party Finance, justice	GS (close to ALDE), SD (PES), L (EL)	Vesel, a former president of the Slovenian Court of Audit, has been proposed be the Slovenian government. Previously, some media reports had mentioned foreign minister Tanja Fajon (SD/PES) as a possible candidate for the post of High Representative. However, it is unlikely that this post will go to the PES after this election.
EE	Kaja Kallas RE/ALDE High Representative	RE (ALDE), SDE (PES), E200 (close to ALDE)	Prime Minister Kallas has been nominated by the European Council as High Representative. As an alternative, MEP Urmas Paet (RE/ALDE) would also have been interested in a Commission post. The coalition agreement stipulated that RE (ALDE) would propose the commissioner.
CY	Hárris Georgiádes DISY/EPP Economy Giórgos Lakkotrýpis DISY/EPP Energy Konstantínos Kómbos DISY/EPP Foreign affairs, justice	DISY (EPP), DIKO (close to PES)	The current commissioner Stélla Kyriakídes (DISY/EPP) has announced that she will not run for another term. Former finance minister Georgíades, former energy minister Lakkotrýpis and current foreign minister Kómbos are seen as possible successors. The Cyprus government has suggested that it targets the position of the proposed new commissioner of the Mediterranean.
LU	Christophe Hansen CSV/EPP Economy Nicolas Schmit LSAP/PES Economy, social affairs	CSV (EPP), DP (ALDE)	The Luxembourg government originally intended to propose former MEP Hansen as commissioner. However, current EU commissioner Schmit has been the lead candidate of the PES and could therefore have a good chance of winning an important Commission post, such as vice-president. This could be a reason for the government to put him forward again, even though Schmit’s party is now in opposition
MT	Miriam Dalli PL/PES Climate Ian Borg PL/PES Broad profile	PL (PES)	The Maltese government had planned to propose deputy prime minister and health expert Chris Fearne (PL/PES) as commissioner, but he had to resign in May 2024 amidst a corruption scandal. Still prime minister Robert Abela (PL/PES) announced in early July that he would stick to nominating him if Fearne could clear his name in a court session scheduled for 24 July. After the court ruled against Fearne, he withdrew his candidacy himself. Environment minister Dalli and foreign minister Borg are seen as possible replacements.

Pictures: Own graphs.