EU Analytics is a new monthly column by Nicolai von Ondarza. It focuses on data-driven analysis of EU institutional affairs, looking at voting in the European Parliament and the (public) votes of the Council of the EU. The articles are cross-posted here from Nicolai’s own newsletter on Substack, where he occasionally also does other institutional analysis.
Highlight of the month: The motion of censure
A vote with two stories this month was the “motion of censure” against the von der Leyen Commission. Brought forward by parts of the far-right, this vote was never expected to succeed, as it required a 2/3 majority of MEPs voting against von der Leyen and all the other Commissioners. What it did, though, was reveal the growing pressure on an EP where the EPP tries to play with two different majorities.
On the one side, in the debate preceding the vote, the political groups from the centre / centre-left blasted both Manfred Weber (CSU/EPP) and Ursula von der Leyen (CDU/EPP) for their increasing appeasement and seeking majorities with the far-right. In particular parts of the S&D publicly toyed with abstaining en bloc, which led von der Leyen to make promises on social funds in the upcoming MFF negotiations.
On the other side, when it came to the actual vote, the “von der Leyen” pro-European majority stood: It was only one of two votes in July in which the majority rested only on the EPP, S&D and Renew, plus the Greens/EFA. In all other votes, at least large parts of the ECR voted with the majority. A propos ECR: Although the motion originated from the ECR, it was completely split: While roughly 50% of its MEPs voted in favour of censuring the Commission – in particular its members from Poland, Romania but also Sweden and Finland (where their party is a junior partner in the government) –, most of the rest decided to not even abstain but just not vote. The whole Italian part of the ECR from Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia opted to just not make any choice.
Together, the vote and debate showed the fragility of this European Parliament: The pro-European majority of EPP, S&D, Renew (plus sometimes the Greens) does not really trust each other anymore, and their divergences are increasing. Yet the far right is only an alternative for the EPP for very few votes, whereas on the major questions it remains inherently split.
Votes in the European Parliament
The EP had one major plenary session (8-11 July 2025) before MEPs went on their summer recess, with a total of 30 final votes recorded at HowTheyVote.eu. The most attention certainly got the motion of censure against von der Leyen, but other votes also highlighted the shifting political landscape in the EP as well.
The shifting majorities were on full display this month. Of the 30 votes, only 2 were carried only on the back of the “pro-European centre” of EPP, S&D, Renew plus Greens: The rejection of the motion of censure against the Commission and a vote on a report on the European Investment banks. Overall, the EPP but also Renew were on the side of the majority in all 30 votes, while the S&D found itself on the losing side on two votes (both rejected objections to a delegated regulation regarding a blacklist of “high-risk third countries” concerning money laundering, and on both the S&D was also split in itself). Interestingly, however, the ECR sided with the majority in 26 out of 30 cases – thus as often as the Greens/EFA group – confirming its position as now often part of the majority, dare I even say mainstream.
The story remains different for the self-appointed “Patriots for Europe” and the AfD-led “Europe of Sovereign Nations” groups. The “Patriots” sided with the majority 17 times, so still more than 50% of the votes, and the ESN in just nine votes (30%).
Far-right watch
But were the far-right groups relevant for any of the majorities, especially with the ECR being almost as often on the side of the majority as the S&D? Here the picture is more complicated.
By my calculation, indeed in both of the cases where the S&D did not vote with the majority, this was formed based on the EPP, Renew plus the ECR, the Patriots for Europe, the ESN and non-aligned MEPs. In both of these cases, the majority would have changed if the ECR, Patriots and ESN had voted differently. Incidentally, both of these votes happened on 9 July, so the day before the vote on the motion of censure. One possible conclusion: Despite pressure from the S&D, the “Venezuela” majority stretching from the EPP to the far-right remains an acceptable option to the EPP.
Public Votes in the Council of the EU
For monitoring the Council votes, the public data always lags a bit behind, so we are looking at the June 2025 votes. Here, the SWP Council Monitor and the public voting records of the Council together show 11 public votes, 9 of which were based on qualified majority. This was a month which highlighted the outsider role of Hungary – it was the only country in the month with no-votes, voting against the majority in three of the nine files with QMV (33%).
The decisions Hungary voted against all were connected to Russia/Foreign Affairs: They included a regulation on the application of customs on Russia and Belarus, a decision concerning the application of agriculture rules for Moldova and Ukraine as well as a regulation suspending certain restrictions for Ukraine. On the latter, Poland also abstained. The many no-votes from Hungary also meant there was a consensus rate of only 50%, whereas only two decisions passed with neither no-votes or abstentions. Another noteworthy vote was on the directive reducing the protection for wolves (a passion for Ursula von der Leyen), on which Belgium, Poland and Spain abstained.
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Nicolai von Ondarza is Head of the Research Division EU/Europe of the German Institute of International and Security Affairs (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik). |
This article was first published on Nicolai von Ondarza’s newsletter EU Analytics.
Is there a practical difference between abstaining and not voting?
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