FIIA Briefing Paper: Germany’s “perfect storm”

Deutsch

By Manuel Müller

Ahead of the federal elections on 23 February, Germany faces numerous and profound structural challenges. In foreign and economic policy, growing geopolitical tensions – the loss of Russian energy supplies, the uncertainties surrounding the economic partnership with China and the prospect of an unfriendly US administration under Donald Trump – have undermined the country’s model based on global interdependence and open trade.

Domestically, Berlin is struggling with the consequences of long-term underinvestment in public infrastructure, limited innovation capacity and sluggish productivity growth. Despite the country’s reliance on labour migration, public opinion has become increasingly hostile to immigrants. At the same time, the rise of the far-right AfD (ESN) has severely limited post-election coalition options and led to conflicts between centrist parties over the future of the cordon sanitaire.

Setbacks in EU policy

All of this has not been without an impact on Gemany’s role in the European Union. The “traffic light” coalition entered the 2021-25 legislature with high ambitions for EU policy. Since then, however, both Germany’s leading role in the EU and its long-standing partnership with France have suffered severe setbacks. Not least Germany’s reactions to the wars in Ukraine and in Gaza have sparked criticism and dented the country’s credibility.

At the same time, no credible alternatives have emerged to replace the role of the Franco-German tandem. On the contrary: Many other EU member states are struggling with similar problems as Germany. Even if recent developments have affected Germany’s status in the EU, the Union will hardly be able to overcome its internal and international crises without Germany’s contribution and leadership. Still, solving the many structural problems will not be easy: Even if the next German government is more stable than the recent one, it will still be subject to the same economic constraints and domestic political pressures.

In a new Briefing Paper for the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), my colleagues and I take a look at the German situation ahead of the federal elections. The full Briefing Paper is available here.

FIIA is also organising a discussion on the federal elections next Wednesday, 13 February, at the Finnish Parliament in Helsinki. As a guest speaker, we will welcome Nicolai von Ondarza, Head of the EU/Europe Research Division of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). More information on the event here.

Picture: Cover of the FIIA Briefing Paper, based on a photo by Kay Nietfeld, DPA / Lehtikuva.