At the bazaar of the political groups: Which parties could look for new partners in the European Parliament after the EU election?

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By Manuel Müller

Who goes where?

Sometimes it is called a “bazaar”, sometimes a “transfer market”: After the European elections, there is always a lot of jostling in the European Parliament to see which national party will join which political group. In particular, recently formed newcomer parties that win seats for the first time often wait until after the election before committing themselves to a particular European party family. But even parties that have been around for a long time are sometimes dissatisfied and use the election as an opportunity to switch from one group to another.

Group changes after the election

From a democratic point of view, this is of course a nuisance. It would be more transparent and honest with the voters if all national parties made it clear before the elections which partners they want to work with at the European level. Institutional incentives for this could be provided by transnational lists or a transnational electoral threshold, both of which do not yet exist in European electoral law.

Without such incentives, national parties often prefer to keep a low profile in order to avoid being blamed for actions of their future partners that might be controversial with their voters. European parties, for their part, also prefer to wait and see whether a new national party actually wins seats before promising it a place in their own group. And sometimes it even is necessary to know the election result in order to determine whether a particular group is viable at all. According to the Parliament’s rules of procedure, this requires at least 23 MEPs from a total of at least seven member states.

Biggest uncertainty factor in European seat projections

In seat projections for the next European Parliament, which can also be found on this blog, the question of the exact composition of the political groups is therefore the biggest single source of uncertainty. Who will the many newcomers join? What will be the role of the large, previously non-attached parties such as Italy’s MoVimento 5 Stelle (M5S)? Will the new left-conservative group dreamed of by Germany’s Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) come into being? What will happen to the German AfD now that it has been expelled from the ID? And what domino effects could be triggered if Hungary’s Fidesz joins the ECR group and other, more moderate parties leave the group as a result?

To deal with these uncertainties, the seat projections in this blog distinguish between a baseline scenario (in which new parties of unclear affiliation are labelled as “others”) and a dynamic scenario (in which all “others” are assigned to a parliamentary group and plausible group changes by other parties are also taken into account). However, the dynamic scenario can, of course, only cover one possibility at a time and provides little information about what other options are available to the respective parties.

The overview

The following table aims to remedy this. It lists, by country, all the national parties that could join a new parliamentary group in the new legislature and briefly describes their various options. Inevitably, some of the information is speculative, and there may be some surprises after the European election that are not foreseen here. But at least it gives an idea of how big the Parliament’s bazaar will be this year and which parties to watch after the election.

The number of seats shown in the table corresponds to the poll-based projection of April 2024. The table also includes some parties that did not receive any seats in the April projection, but would regularly have entered Parliament in the months before.

State	Party	Seats	From	To	Comments
DE	AfD	17	NI	NI AfD	After several scandals, the ID group decided to expel the AfD in May 2024. In all likelihood, this will leave the AfD without a parliamentary group after the elections. It may try to form its own new far-right group (for example, with Poland’s Konfederacja, Hungary’s MHM or Greece’s NIKI), but is unlikely to find enough partners for this.
DE	BSW	5	new	NI BSW Left	The BSW will try to form its own parliamentary group and, if this fails, will probably remain non-attached. Joining the Left group is also conceivable, but is likely to fail due to poor relations with the German Linke.
DE	FW	3	RE	RE ECR	The FW have moved to the right since the last European election. In the ECR group, where there is no other major German party, they could raise their profile better than in the RE. However, they have not announced any concrete intentions, so this change may remain a rumour.
FR	RN	29	ID	ID ECR	The RN has traditionally been the dominating party in the ID group and is likely to keep this role after the election. However, the RN has also recently started talking again about a joint group with Italy’s FdI, suggesting an interest in switching to the ECR. Such a move could help the RN’s “de-demonisation” agenda and give it more access to cooperation with the EPP. However, given the RN’s extremist image, it is less clear whether the ECR are also interested. If the RN really does switch, this could lead to other ID parties also joining the ECR, and the current French ECR member Reconquête being pushed out.
FR	REC	6	ECR	ECR ID NI	Reconquête is likely to win seats in a European election for the first time. However, the party is already represented in the European Parliament by an MEP who defected from the RN and joined the ECR group. It is likely that Reconquête will remain a member of this group – unless a switch by its national rival, the RN, shakes up the European allegiances of the French far right.
FR	LFI	6	Left	Left BSW	LFI is one of the Left group’s strongest member parties, but is also seen as a possible target for a joint parliamentary group with the German BSW. If this happens, it will probably split the Left group, as other parties will follow LFI.
IT	FdI	24	ECR	ECR EPP	The EPP has repeatedly stated that it is open to working with the FdI after the election, but not with certain other ECR members such as Poland’s PiS. This has led to some speculation that the FdI might switch groups, a move that would also be supported by the EPP’s current Italian member, Forza Italia. Still, it seems more likely that the FdI wants to maintain its current role as the dominant force within the ECR.
IT	M5S	14	NI	NI G/EFA Left BSW	The Movimento 5 Stelle, which has evolved in recent years from a populist protest party into a NATO-sceptical centre-left party, would like to join the Greens/EFA group. However, talks to this effect have so far been unsuccessful. Alternatives could be the Left or a possible new parliamentary group with the German BSW.
ES	Sumar	1	new	Left G/EFA	The Sumar party alliance is standing for the first time in a European election. Most of the candidates on the list are members of parties belonging to either the Greens/EFA or the Left group in the European Parliament. However, there are also some Sumar candidates who do not belong to any party and whose group affiliation is still open.
PL	Konf	5	new	NI ID AfD	The hardline Eurosceptic Konfederacja is likely to enter Parliament for the first time. Its predecessor parties had relations with ID, but these were always difficult. Konfederacja could therefore remain unaffiliated or join an (unlikely) new parliamentary group around the German AfD.
RO	AUR	8	new	ECR NI	The far-right AUR has announced that it will join the ECR – but only if Hungary’s Fidesz does not.
RO	SOS	2	new	ID	The pro-Russian far-right party SOS România wants to join ID.
RO	FD	1	new	EPP	The FD has announced its intention to join the EPP.
NL	VVD	5	RE	RE EPP ECR	As the VVD has formed a coalition with the far-right PVV (ID) in the Netherlands, the RE group will vote on whether to exclude the VVD after the election. If this were to happen, the EPP or ECR might be prepared to include the VVD. A similar case concerns Sweden’s Liberalerna.
NL	BBB	1	new	EPP	The BBB has announced its intention to join the EPP.
NL	NSC	0	new	EPP	The NSC has announced its intention to join the EPP.
NL	FvD	0	NI	NI AfD	In the summer of 2023, the FvD took part in a meeting of parties largely to the right of ID. If the FvD returns to the European Parliament at all, it could therefore be a target party for an (unlikely) new group around the German AfD.
BE	N-VA	3	ECR	EPP RE ECR	The N-VA “no longer feels entirely at home in the ECR” and would prefer to join the EPP. However, there are still reservations because of the N-VA’s Flemish-separatist positions. A possible alternative could be the RE group – or remaining in the ECR.
CZ	ANO	7	RE	RE ECR BSW	There has been speculation for some time about a possible withdrawal of ANO from the RE group. A move to the ECR would be possible, especially if the former Czech ECR member party ODS joins the EPP. As an emergency solution, ANO could also join a possible new parliamentary group around Germany’s BSW.
CZ	ODS	3	ECR	ECR EPP	The national-conservative ODS works closely with two Czech EPP parties and is trying to build bridges between the EPP and the ECR in the European Parliament. If the ECR moves further to the right (e.g. by admitting Hungary’s Fidesz), the ODS could see this as a reason to change its parliamentary group.
CZ	Přísaha	1	new	EPP	Přísaha has announced its intention to join the EPP.
EL	Syriza	4	Left	Left S&D	Parts of the Syriza leadership would like to switch to the S&D group, which is open to the idea in principle. However, the proposal is controversial within the party.
EL	PE	1	new	Left BSW NI	The left-populist PE could win a seat in the Parliament for the first time. It could conceivably join the Left group or a new group around Germany’s BSW, but it could also remain non-attached.
EL	NIKI	1	new	NI ID AfD	The Christian national-conservative NIKI has announced that it will remain non-attached. Given its pro-Russian positions, the only plausible alternatives would be to join the ID or an (unlikely) new group around Germany’s AfD.
HU	Fidesz	11	NI	ID ECR	Fidesz would like to join the ECR, which is supported by some current ECR members (PiS) but strongly opposed by others (ODS, SD, AUR and parts of PiS). ID, on the other hand, has shown itself to be open to admitting Fidesz and could therefore be the more plausible destination, especially after the expulsion of the German AfD, with which Fidesz does not want to cooperate.
HU	TISZA	3	new	EPP	The centre-right TISZA party, led by Péter Magyar, is likely to join the EPP, which since the departure of Fidesz has only been weakly represented in Hungary (with Fidesz’s partner KDNP).
HU	MKKP	2	new	G/EFA NI	The MKKP satire party has observer status in the European Pirate Party. It could join the Greens/EFA group like other pirate parties, or remain unaffiliated like other satire parties.
HU	KDNP	1	EPP	EPP ID ECR	The KDNP is a small party that is close to Fidesz and always runs on a joint list with it in elections. However, the KDNP remained in the EPP when Fidesz left in 2021. If the EPP gains new Hungarian members (such as TISZA) after the European election, the KDNP could be forced to leave and join the same group as Fidesz.
HU	MHM	1	new	NI AfD	The far-right MHM has taken over Jobbik’s former place in the Hungarian party system. It would like to set up its own parliamentary group in the European Parliament, possibly with the support of Germany’s AfD. However, it is unlikely to find enough other partners, in which case it will probably remain non-attached.
HU	Jobbik	0	NI	EPP NI	The former extreme-right Jobbik has transformed itself in recent years into a democratic national-conservative party and is seeking to join the EPP. However, the party’s persistently poor international image may prevent it from doing so, especially as the EPP has another potential member from Hungary, TISZA.
PT	Chega	4	new	ID	Chega is entering the Parliament for the first time, but is already a member of the ID party.
SE	L	1	RE	RE EPP	The Swedish Liberalerna work together with the far-right SD (ECR) at national level. The Swedish Centerpartiet is therefore calling for them to be excluded from the RE Group. If this were to happen, the Liberalerna could seek refuge in the EPP group. A similar case concerns the Dutch VVD.
BG	PP-DB	3	new	RE EPP	PP-DB is an alliance of centrist-liberal and centre-right parties. Joining the RE is an obvious choice, but individual MEPs could also join the EPP.
BG	V	3	new	ID AfD	Vǎzrashdane has been a member of the ID party since early 2024, so joining the ID group is an obvious choice. However, Vǎzrashdane was also involved in a meeting of parties to the right of ID in the summer of 2023 and could therefore be a possible target for an (unlikely) new group around Germany’s AfD.
BG	ITN	1	new	ECR	ITN has announced its intention to join the ECR.
DK	LA	1	new	EPP	The LA has announced its intention to join the EPP.
DK	DD	1	new	EPP	The DD have announced their intention to join the ECR.
SK	Smer	4	NI	NI S&D BSW	Slovakia’s governing party Smer was suspended by the S&D in 2023 and has been non-attached since then. If the S&D lifts the suspension, it could return to the group. Alternatively, it could try to form a new group with the German BSW.
SK	Hlas	3	new	NI S&D BSW	Hlas, the party of Slovakia’s president Peter Pellegrini, has been suspended by the European Socialists, as has its coalition partner Smer. Its alliance options in the Parliament are similar to those of Smer.
IE	SD	1	new	S&D	The SD have announced their intention to join the S&D.
HR	Most	1	new	ECR	Most is in accession talks with the ECR.
HR	DP	1	new	ID	DP has announced its intention to join ID.
LT	LRP	1	new	S&D BSW NI	The LRP is ideologically close to the Social Democrats and could join the S&D. However, given its rather pro-Russian positions, it could also be a target for a possible new group around the German BSW.
LT	NA	1	new	ECR NI	The right-wing populist anti-Russian NA is ideologically closest to the ECR, but could also remain non-attached.
LV	LRA	1	new	EPP RE	The centrist-regionalist LRA could join various groups.
LV	LPV	1	new	ECR NI	The right-wing populist, NATO-friendly LPV is ideologically closest to the ECR, but could also remain unaffiliated.
LV	ST!	1	new	BSW ID NI	The pro-Russian ST! would be an obvious target for a new group around the German BSW. Alternatively, it could also join ID or remain non-attached.
CY	ELAM	1	new	ECR	ELAM is close to the ECR.

Picture: Júlio Reis (Tintazul), CC BY-SA 2.5, via Wikimedia Commons.