EU analytics – November 2025 review: The breakdown of the Cordon Sanitaire amid three different majorities

By Nicolai von Ondarza

The graph speaks almost for itself: In the Omnibus vote, the EP was divided along a clear left-to-right split.

This was a month of much upheaval in the European Parliament, with wildly different majorities. We saw the further dismantling of the cordon sanitaire with the first major legislative vote passed by the “Venezuela majority”, and yet still the majority of votes passed on the back of the “von der Leyen majority”. I even found the first practical example that I know of in the plenary of what Manfred Weber always points to, a majority build by the S&D and Greens together with the far right.

All of these together make the European Parliament so much more unpredictable. Meanwhile, in the Council almost all public votes passed unanimous, except on the EU budget 2026, where the frugals were sidelined. Time to dive in:

Highlight of the month: EP vote on simplified sustainability and due diligence (Take 2)

Although the obvious candidate, it is clear that the EP vote on the first omnibus package – with “simplification of the rules concerning certain corporate sustainability reporting and due diligence requirements” – was an important moment in at least this legislative term. As discussed also here and in this deeper analysis, since last year’s European election there technically was the option of a centre-right to far-right majority, the so called “Venezuela” majority. But previously, it was used only on symbolic or minor votes. The omnibus legislation, however, was the first time the far right was central to building a majority for a major EU legislative file. Arguably, in addition to security, the competitiveness/simplification agenda is the major policy agenda of the von der Leyen II Commission, so this vote mattered.

Before having a closer look at the vote itself, its history is also important. There was a compromise on it negotiated between the EPP, the S&D and Renew (under heavy pressure of the EPP threatening to vote with the far-right), which surprisingly failed to find a majority in October. Then the parties who voted in von der Leyen continued negotiations until the night before the vote, when it became clear that no compromise was found. So it remains to be argued with whom the blame lies, whether the EPP wanted to much or the S&D (and parts of Renew) were not willing to compromise. The end result is clear, a centre-right to far-right majority, on a proposal from an EPP rapporteur:

As clear a left-to-right split as there can be

Looking closer at the vote itself, the graph above (now ordered from left to right by political affiliation) speaks almost for itself – as clear a left-to-right split as there can be, with the centre-right to far-right majority winning the day. What is clear is also that the EPP was united in this strategy, whereas a few rebels from the S&D and Renew voted in favour.

The other point of note is that the majority was not only with the ECR, not only with the Patriots for Europe but the whole far right, including its most extreme bits in the ESN. Thanks to the rebels from the S&D and Renew, the ESN/AfD votes were not decisive, but they also demonstratively joined the right-wing block. The Patriots for Europe were quick to celebrate this as the end of the cordon sanitaire and the pathway to different majorities in the EP. And although part of this is political bravado, the further three times (see below) the centre-right to far-right majority was used underscore this point.

Final votes in the European Parliament

In November 2025, the EP had two major plenary sessions, a short one in Brussels (12-13 November) and one in late November in Strasbourg (24-27 November). In terms of votes, both plenaries together had 51 votes recorded at HowTheyVote.EU. From these, there are many stories to tell. The most important one is certainly the one highlighted above, the (final?) breaking of the cordon sanitaire by the EPP voting together with the far-right on a major piece of EU legislation. However, taking in the votes in a whole, there are other stories to tell which certainly complicate the matter.

First, the regular option is still the “von der Leyen” majority/platform of EPP, S&D and Renew. From the 51 votes, they carried 40, so roughly 80%. This includes major votes like on the climate goal for 2040, in which the parties left and right of centre voted in favour of a stricter CO₂ emissions goal for 2040, with all the implications that entails.

“Von der Leyen”, “Venezuela”, and “Maize”

Secondly, the “Venezuela majority” is becoming a regular occurrence rather than just a singular exception on high-profile cases. Looking at the full 51 votes of November, I count four that were won on the back of the EPP forming a majority together with the ECR, the Patriots for Europe and – notably – in each case also including the AfD-led ESN. These were the votes on the Omnibus package, on access to finance for SMEs, on the principle of subsidiarity and the role of national parliaments and, once more, on the deforestation regulation. This also means that the majority is now affecting more areas, including economic policy and, for me most surprising, an element of EU integration in regards to the role of national parliaments.

But, least discussed in public, there also was a third majority in the EP this month: That of the left (S&D, Greens, The Left) together with the far right (ECR, Patriots and ESN). When confronted with the fact that the EPP now finds itself in majorities with the far right, Manfred Weber regularly argues that the centre-left would also do this. This was the first month since I started EU Analytics in July that I found several instances of this. In total five votes, all concerning gen-modified food such as Maize or Cotton, were won on the back of this majority, with the EPP either fully or mostly against. This truly is a European Parliament with very different majorities.

Source: HowTheyVote.eu.

A final point of note in the EP this month is that the ESN is slowly but notably becoming more mainstream. Mostly formed by the AfD, the group used to be pretty much against everything in the EP. But the more the “Venezuela” or (for lack of a better name) the “Maize” majorities form, the more the ESN votes with the majority. That means that the ESN, at least in November, voted together with the majority of the EP almost 50% of the time, so just a bit less often than the Patriots for Europe. This further supports my argument that, so far, almost whenever one of the centre parties form a majority with the far right, they do so with the full spectrum, all the way to the extremes.

Source: Own calculation based on voting data from HowTheyVote.EU.

Public votes in the Council of the EU

For monitoring the Council votes, the analysis builds upon the public votes published, which are always fewer. For November 2025, there were a total of 10 votes published under qualified majority. Looking through the data, a few things stand out:

• As if to even out the statistics, after October 2025 was a month of little consensus (with only 6 of 13 votes passed unanimously) November 2025 was the opposite: All but one of the 10 votes passed by unanimity, leading to a 90% consensus rate.
• The one vote without consensus passed with one No vote (Sweden) and four abstentions (Hungary, Netherlands, Austria and Finland).
• The vote’s subject can thus almost be guessed – it was the EU budget for 2026, and thus quite some disquiet voiced from the Frugals, plus Hungary.
• Still, without Germany, Denmark (who currently holds the Presidency) and some more support, the Frugals can be outvoted:

Source: General Secretariat of the Council of the European Union.

Nicolai von Ondarza is Head of the Research Division EU/Europe of the German Institute of International and Security Affairs (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik).

EU Analytics is a monthly column by Nicolai von Ondarza. It focuses on data-driven analysis of EU institutional affairs, looking at voting in the European Parliament and the public votes of the Council of the EU. The articles are cross-posted here from Nicolai’s own newsletter on Substack, where he occasionally also does other institutional analysis.

Pictures: portrait Nicolai von Ondarza: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik [all rights reserved].