- Ursula von der Leyen delivering the 2025 State of the Union address in Strasbourg
This month marked the “back to school” moment in EU politics: the State of the Union (SOTEU) speech by Commission President von der Leyen, the European Parliament back in session, several omnibus files still stuck between Parliament and Council, and security concerns dominating the agenda.
As every month, this newsletter reviews (1) one spotlighted vote (this time on Ukraine), (2) the final votes in the European Parliament and (3) the Council’s public votes.
Spotlight of the month: EP vote on Ukraine
In September 2025, there were several votes worth a closer look: the first Gaza resolution of this legislative period; a centre-right to far-right majority on a resolution on Colombia (see below); and votes on cohesion funds, the Capital Markets Union, and more. I chose the vote on a resolution regarding Ukraine to see how the political groups position themselves on what remains the EU’s most critical security issue.
The resolution itself was fairly unremarkable in substance, reacting to two Commission progress reports on Ukraine. It nevertheless restated the EU’s support for the country: its territorial sovereignty, its right to self-defence, and its EU membership perspective. Unsurprisingly, it passed with a 70% majority – 418 MEPs in favour and 135 against. What is more revealing is who voted against, diverging from the EU’s mainstream position on Ukraine.
By political group, the EPP, S&D, Renew and the Greens – as well as the ECR – voted overwhelmingly in favour. By contrast, the Patriots for Europe all voted either against or abstained; the Left largely voted against; and the ESN also voted against (with one lone ESN MEP from Lithuania voting differently).
Given the current debate on how to overcome Hungary’s blockade of accession talks with Ukraine, it is also worth looking at the country level. A majority of MEPs in all but four member states supported the resolution. The outliers were France (due to the large RN delegation), Hungary (with Fidesz opposed), Slovakia (roughly split), and – surprisingly – Malta. I am not sure why Maltese MEPs, from both the EPP and the S&D, voted against or abstained; if any of you knows, please leave a comment. It is telling, though, to see the degree of rejection in Hungary. Notably, even the Hungarian EPP MEPs abstained rather than vote with their group, underlining how difficult it is at the moment to voice a pro-Ukraine position in Hungary.
Final votes in the European Parliament
The Parliament held one major plenary session (8–11 September), including von der Leyen’s SOTEU address. The speech was combative (“Europe is in a fight”), light on institutional/governance proposals (beyond a passing call for more majority voting), and – from the perspective of this newsletter – noteworthy in how von der Leyen reached towards the centre-left to sustain her majority. That contrasts sharply with Manfred Weber, whose reply attacked the S&D while he continues to test potential majorities with the far right.
According to HowTheyVote, the plenary featured 29 final votes. The trend from July 2025 was confirmed: only a single vote – on the Capital Markets Union – was carried exclusively by the von der Leyen majority of EPP, S&D and Renew (plus the Greens). All other votes either included at least the ECR or the Left in the winning coalition, or even tilted to the (far) right.
Overall, the dominance of the EPP and Renew continued: both were part of the majority in all 29 votes. The S&D was on the losing side twice; the ECR won 89.7% of the votes; and the Greens were notably lower at 82.1%. At the moment, the ECR is therefore closer to the median EP majority than the Greens. Also notable: the Patriots for Europe continue their swing between fundamental opposition to “Brussels” and efforts to mainstream. They were part of the majority in 51.7% of the votes in September (down from 56.7% in July), meaning that despite their rhetoric they still side with the EP majority more often than not. Finally, the ESN remained far off, voting with the majority in 11 of the 29 votes.
Far right watch: relevance for majorities
Were the far right groups actually pivotal to any majorities, especially given that the ECR sided with the majority almost as often as the S&D? We do have one clear case: the resolution on the situation in Colombia after a wave of terrorist attacks. Although non binding, it was another foreign policy file that split the “pro European” centre. The S&D in particular accused the EPP of politicising the text – criticising the Colombian authorities rather than only condemning the attacks – and of “adding fuel to the fire”.
In the end, the resolution was carried by a majority of the EPP, ECR, Patriots for Europe and the ESN, plus Renew. This adds to the growing list of files carried by a centre-right to far-right majority, and it signals Renew’s willingness to vote with that majority when the overall direction is set by the EPP.
Public votes in the Council of the EU
For the Council, this analysis relies on the small set of votes made public. In September 2025, there were five qualified–majority votes. Even with so few cases, a few points stand out:
- Hungary on board: A full month with no abstentions or “against” votes from Orbán’s government.
- A fresh “German vote”: Despite Merz’s promise to end the so-called “German vote” (Germany abstaining in the Council, often due to coalition disagreements), Berlin abstained alone on a regulation aiming to prevent plastic pallet pollution.
- Nordic frugality persists: Sweden and Finland voted against two proposals together – changes to the European Social Fund and elements of the mid-term budget review.
Recommended reads
If you are interested in further analysis, I recommend my two posts on EU policy towards Israel/Gaza, which also help explain several of the tools von der Leyen put on the table in her SOTEU address. For a more in-depth look at how far-right parties are being integrated into EU decision making, see this longer analysis by my colleagues Max Becker, Johanna Flach and me.
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Nicolai von Ondarza is Head of the Research Division EU/Europe of the German Institute of International and Security Affairs (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik). |
EU Analytics is a monthly column by Nicolai von Ondarza. It focuses on data-driven analysis of EU institutional affairs, looking at voting in the European Parliament and the public votes of the Council of the EU. The articles are cross-posted here from Nicolai’s own newsletter on Substack, where he occasionally also does other institutional analysis.
