20 Juli 2023

European Parliament seat projection (July 2023): How far will the new Parliament shift to the right?

By Manuel Müller

EP today3772143101177666247
May 2349501379216279673336
July 2341481369416079703641
Baseline scenario,
as of 17/07/2023.

Dynamic scenario,
as of 17/07/2023.

In more and more EU member states, right-wing parties participate in government – now also in Finland since the end of June, and soon possibly in Spain after the national parliamentary elections next Sunday. In France, the ongoing riots are keeping the public on edge and shifting the debate to the right. In Germany, the AfD (ID) is on the rise. And at the European level, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) is working on a rapprochement with the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). Recently, this alliance was unsuccessful in blocking the EU renaturation law. But with a view to the European elections in 2024, the question of how far the majority in the European Parliament will shift to the right is more urgent than ever.

EPP and S&D almost unchanged

Looking only at the two largest groups – the EPP and the social-democratic S&D – the picture is almost unchanged compared to the last seat projection from May. At least for the time being, the EPP has not benefited in the polls from the polarisation it has brought about, but rather has lost support in Germany, France and Romania. Only in Spain, Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s PP has recently been successful with an aggressive electoral campaign. Overall, the EPP falls slightly to 160 projected seats (–⁠2 compared to May).

However, the second-placed S&D has hardly been able to close the gap with the EPP. The Social Democrats have gained slightly in the French and Dutch polls, and in Spain they also benefited from the increased polarisation of the election campaign. The Romanian and Slovakian S&D member parties, on the other hand, have recently suffered setbacks. Overall, the group would now have a total of 136 seats (–⁠1). The race for first place is thus far from decided, even if the EPP remains the favourite to win the European elections in 2024.

Mixed news for the Liberals

For the liberal Renew Europe (RE) group, the last few weeks have been a mixed bag. The Liberals received more bad news from France, where Emmanuel Macron's governing alliance Ensemble has not been able to get out of the domestic political crises for months, as pension reform protests were followed almost seamlessly by riots against police brutality. Also in Austria and Estonia, RE members suffered in the polls recently; and the Spanish party Ciudadanos won’t even run in the national elections on Sunday.

In Italy, on the other hand, the otherwise deeply divided liberal parties agreed at the end of May to seek a joint list for the European elections, which could significantly increase their weight in the European Parliament. In the Netherlands, the Liberals recently made gains following the resignation of Prime Minister Mark Rutte and the calling of new elections. All in all, the RE has slightly improved its position in the projection and now stands at 94 seats (+2).

Left and Greens lose

Much worse were the recent numbers for the parties on the left side of the political spectrum. After staying very stable for most of the current parliamentary term, the Left group in the European Parliament has suffered significant losses in recent weeks. While the German Linke is on the verge of splitting, Spain’s Podemos recently joined the green-left alliance Sumar, which, however, has been largely overshadowed in the election campaign by the social-democratic PSOE. Greece’s Syriza fell short of expectations in the national parliamentary elections in June, and France’s LFI has come under criticism for its ambivalent stance on the recent riots. All in all, the Left Group falls to 41 seats (–⁠8) – its weakest figure in this parliamentary term, although still just above the result of 2019.

The Greens/EFA group, on the other hand, suffered from poor poll ratings for a long time during this parliamentary term, but was able to improve them somewhat in the course of last year. In the latest projection, this upswing is dampened again. Among other countries, the Greens are struggling especially in Germany. Overall, the Greens/EFA group would now have 48 seats (–⁠2), which is a decent figure in comparison to the last years, but still far from their result of 2019.

ID gains, ECR stable

On the other side of the semicircle, the slow rise of the right-wing groups ID and ECR continues. The ID is benefiting above all from the surge of the German AfD, but also from recent gains of the Dutch PVV. The Portuguese Chega, on the other hand, has recently seen a setback in its general upward tendency. In total, the ID now stands at 70 seats (+3).

Meanwhile, the ECR recently fell back in Spain and other countries, but can also make gains in Romania and thus reaches an unchanged total of 79 seats (±⁠0). However, the group’s prospects have improved considerably in the dynamic scenario, which also takes into account possible accessions of parties that so far have been non-attached or not represented in the Parliament.

Non-attached and “other” parties

These non-attached (36 seats/+3) and “other” parties (41 seats/+5) make significant inroads in the current seat projection, mainly due to gains by right-wing newcomer parties. A major winner of the last weeks is the right-wing populist Reconquête party from France, whose leader Éric Zemmour made headlines ahead of the 2022 French presidential election. After the riots in France, the party could now clear the five-percent threshold again – and recently announced interest in joining the ECR group after the European election.

Other right-wing parties that have increased their positions in the polls include the Polish Konfederacja, the Slovak SNS and the Lithuanian LT. Also new in the tableau are the Spartiátes (a successor party to the banned neo-Nazi Chrysi Avgi) and the equally far-right NIKI, both of which entered the national parliament at the first attempt in the Greek parliamentary elections in June.

However, it was not only right-wingers that made gains among the “other” parties: The centre-left party LRP from Lithuania and the left-wing PE from Greece can now also hope for a seat in the European Parliament again. The Dutch BBB, on the other hand, suffered significant losses, falling sharply in the polls after the announcement of new national elections.

Still no unified far-right group

The far-right camp thus fares even better in the dynamic than in the baseline scenario of the seat projection. Both the ECR (with Reconquête) and the ID (with the Hungarian governing party Fidesz) could almost equal the seat share of the liberal RE. If they were to merge, they would even be vying with the EPP and S&D for the place as the strongest parliamentary group.

However, it remains unlikely that such a merger (which has been speculated about for years) will really come about. Even if there are many programmatic similarities between the ECR and the ID in matters of migration, climate, or identity policy, their different positions on Russia remain an important obstacle. Moreover, in several member states – such as Italy, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands –⁠, ECR and ID member parties compete with each other and don’t always maintain the best relations.

In addition, the ECR is currently involved in governments with the EPP in several member states (Italy, Czech Republic, Finland, Latvia) and its best chances of increasing its influence at European level also lie in cooperating with the EPP. However, in order to normalise this cooperation, the EPP in particular is keen to distinguish between the “moderate” right of the ECR and the “extreme” right of the ID. A possible merger of the two groups would run counter to this narrative and would therefore not be in the interests of the ECR.

The centre of gravity tilts to the right

For the same reasons, it is also unlikely that a coalition of EPP, ECR and ID will play a central formative role after the 2024 European elections. Still, the recent vote on the nature restoration law shows that such a right-wing alliance may well gain significance, at least when it comes to blocking proposals it doesn’t like. Mobilising a centre-left majority against EPP, ECR and ID is likely to become even more difficult in the next European Parliament than it already is now.

In the end, this could well be the most important aspect of the right-wing shift after the 2024 European election: In the last years, the “centrist grand coalition” of EPP, S&D and RE (or Greens) was always balanced by the possibility of a centre-left alliance between S&D, RE, Greens/EFA and the Left. Without this centre-left alternative, the S&D loses options and becomes dependent on cooperating with the EPP to form a majority. Conversely, the centre-right alliance of EPP, RE and ECR could gain importance in the future: not necessarily as the main option to push through legislation – the differences between RE and ECR on many issues are too large for that –⁠, but as an alternative that allows the EPP to put pressure on the S&D.

For structural reasons, European elections have never led to drastic political changes, and they will not do so in 2024 either. But the centre of gravity in the European Parliament is tilting to the right – and this will eventually also have an impact on concrete policy decisions.

The overview

The following table breaks down the distribution of seats in the projection by individual national parties. The table follows the baseline scenario, in which each national party is attributed to its current parliamentary group (or to the parliamentary group of their European political party) and parties without a clear attribution are labelled as “other”.

In contrast, the dynamic scenario of the seat projection assigns each “other” party to the parliamentary group to which it is politically closest, and also takes into account other possible future group changes of individual national parties. In the table, the changes in the dynamic scenario compared to the baseline scenario are indicated by a coloured font and a mouseover text.

In the absence of pan-European election polls, the projection is based on an aggregation of national polls and election results from all member states. The specific data basis for each country is explained in the small print below the table. For more information on European parties and political groups in the European Parliament, click here.

New national seat quotas

And another technical note: Before the European election, the member states’ national seat quotas are redefined. According to Art. 14 (2) TEU, this must be done according to the principle of “degressive proportionality” – large states get more seats than small ones, but small states get more seats per inhabitant than large ones. As the number of inhabitants of the countries changes, the seat quotas have to be adjusted before each election.

There is no set formula for this, however. Instead, the European Council (on the initiative and with the consent of the European Parliament) must take a unanimous decision on the distribution of seats. In June, the European Parliament has tabled a proposal in this regard, which would give some countries additional seats and increase the overall size of the Parliament. However, the final decision rests with the heads of state and government. Provisionally, the seat projection is therefore still based on the old distribution of 705 seats.

EP today3772143101177666247
May 2349501379216279673336
July 2341481369416079703641

DE 4 Linke 14 Grüne
1 Piraten
1 Volt
17 SPD 7 FDP
2 FW
26 Union
1 Familie

19 AfD 2 Partei 1 Tier
FR 7 LFI 8 EELV 8 PS 18 Ens 9 LR
23 RN 6 Rec


16 PD 8 Az-IV-+EU 7 FI
24 FdI 8 Lega 13 M5S
ES 5 Sumar
1 Bildu
3 Sumar
18 PSOE 1 PNV 22 PP 8 Vox


4 Lewica 3 PL2050
16 KO
2 KP
19 PiS

8 Konf

11 PSD 5 USR 7 PNL

NL 1 PvdD
1 SP
3 GL
1 Volt
3 PvdA 6 VVD
2 D66
1 CU
1 JA21
EL 4 Syriza
9 ND 1 EL
2 KKE 1 PE
1 Spart
BE 3 PTB 1 Groen
1 Ecolo
2 Vooruit
2 PS
2 MR
1 CD&V
1 LE
3 N-VA 3 VB

1 PAN 6 PS 2 IL 6 PSD
3 CH

3 Piráti


4 DK

11 Fidesz
SE 2 V
9 S 1 C
5 M
4 SD

2 Grüne 5 SPÖ 1 Neos 5 ÖVP



3 V
DK 1 Enhl. 2 SF 4 S 2 V
2 LA
1 M
1 K

1 DD
FI 1 Vas 1 Vihreät 3 SDP 1 Kesk 4 Kok 4 PS


3 Smer-SSD
2 Hlas-SD
2 PS 1 D
1 SaS 1 SR 1 REP 1 SNS

3 FF 4 FG



2 Možemo
1 Most
1 DP

1 LT
1 Prog

2 JV
1 NA

1 S!

1 SD 4 GS 3 SDS


1 SDE 2 RE
1 KE
1 Isamaa



1 Gréng


3 PL
3 PN

Development (baseline scenario)

17/07/2023 41 48 136 94 160 79 70 36 41
22/05/2023 49 50 137 92 162 79 67 33 36
27/03/2023 44 42 137 94 162 78 68 38 42
01/02/2023 50 42 135 96 168 78 65 37 34
06/12/2022 51 44 136 93 166 79 64 37 35
12/10/2022 52 42 127 100 169 79 63 35 38
20/08/2022 52 47 134 98 170 75 63 27 39
22/06/2022 54 44 133 101 165 77 64 31 36
25/04/2022 59 39 139 97 157 78 64 38 34
01/03/2022 53 36 139 98 158 78 62 45 36
04/01/2022 51 39 142 99 165 73 62 34 40
08/11/2021 50 42 144 96 155 75 72 36 35
13/09/2021 54 42 141 98 160 70 75 33 32
21/07/2021 52 45 133 97 167 71 74 31 35
24/05/2021 50 50 125 95 167 74 73 33 38
29/03/2021 52 46 136 96 164 71 73 34 33
02/02/2021 52 45 135 94 184 70 71 21 33
09/12/2020 52 47 136 93 188 67 73 20 29
12/10/2020 51 49 127 96 193 67 71 21 30
14/08/2020 50 53 145 88 196 65 64 20 24
25/06/2020 48 55 143 91 203 64 63 20 18
26/04/2020 47 53 151 88 202 66 66 19 13
10/03/2020 51 58 138 88 188 67 82 21 12
09/01/2020 49 58 135 93 186 65 82 24 13
23/11/2019 48 57 138 99 181 62 82 22 16
23/09/2019 49 61 139 108 175 56 82 24 11
30/07/2019 47 64 138 108 180 57 82 22 7
EP 2019 40 68 148 97 187 62 76 27

The “EP 2019” line indicates the distribution of seats as of July 2, 2019, when the European Parliament was constituted following the election in May 2019.
The table shows the values of the baseline scenario without the United Kingdom. An overview of the values including the United Kingdom for the period up to January 2020 can be found here. An overview of older projections from the 2014-2019 electoral period is here.
The full names of the parliamentary groups and of the national parties appear as mouseover text when the mouse pointer is held motionless on the designation in the table for a short time. If a party is attributed to a different parliamentary group in the dynamic scenario than in the baseline scenario, this is also indicated in the mouseover text.

Attribution of national parties to parliamentary groups

Baseline scenario: For the projection, parties that are already represented in the European Parliament are assigned to their current parliamentary group, unless they have explicitly declared that they will change group after the next European election. National parties that are not currently represented in the European Parliament, but belong to a European political party, are attributed to the parliamentary group of that party. In cases where the members of a national electoral list are expected to split up and join different political groups after the election, the projection uses the allocation that seems most plausible in each case (see below). Parties for which the allocation to a specific parliamentary group is unclear are classified as “other” in the baseline scenario.
According to the Rules of Procedure of the European Parliament, at least 23 MEPs from at least a quarter of the member states are required to form a parliamentary group. Groupings marked with an asterisk (*) would not currently meet these conditions according to the projection. They would therefore have to win over additional MEPs after the European elections in order to be able to constitute themselves as a parliamentary group.
Dynamic scenario: In the dynamic scenario, all “other” parties are assigned to an already existing parliamentary group (or to the group of non-attached members). In addition, the dynamic scenario also takes into account other group changes that appear politically plausible, even if the respective parties have not yet been publicly announced them. To highlight these changes from the baseline scenario, parties that are assigned to a different parliamentary group in the dynamic scenario are marked in the table with the colour of that group; moreover, the name of the group appears in the mouseover text. The attributions in the dynamic scenario are based on a subjective assessment of the political orientation and strategy of the parties and can therefore be quite uncertain in detail. From an overall perspective, however, the dynamic scenario may be closer to the real distribution of seats after the next European election than the baseline scenario.

Data source

If available, the most recent poll of voting intentions for the European Parliament is used to calculate the seat distribution for each country. In case that more than one poll has been published, the average of all polls from the two weeks preceding the most recent poll is calculated, taking into account only the most recent poll from each polling institute. The cut-off date for taking a survey into account is the last day of its fieldwork, if known, otherwise the day of its publication.
For countries where there are no specific European election polls or where the last such poll was taken more than a fortnight ago, the most recent poll available for the national parliamentary election or the average of all polls for the national or European Parliament from the two weeks preceding the most recent poll available is used instead. For countries where there are no recent polls for parliamentary elections, polls for presidential elections may be used instead, with the presidential candidates’ polling figures assigned to their respective parties (this concerns France and Cyprus in particular). For member states for which no recent polls can be found at all, the results of the last national or European elections are used.
As a rule, the national poll results of the parties are directly converted to the total number of seats in the country. For countries where the election is held in regional constituencies without proportional representation (currently Belgium and Ireland), regional polling data is used where available. Where this is not the case, the number of seats is still calculated for each constituency individually, but using the overall national polling data in each case. National electoral thresholds are taken into account in the projection where they exist.
In Belgium, constituencies in the European election correspond to language communities, while polls are usually conducted at the regional level. The projection uses polling data from Wallonia for the French-speaking community and polling data from Flanders for the Dutch-speaking community. For the German-speaking community, it uses the result of the last European election (1 seat for CSP).
In countries where it is common for several parties to run as an electoral alliance on a common list, the projection makes a plausibility assumption about the composition of these lists. In the table, such multi-party lists are usually grouped under the name of the electoral alliance or of its best-known member party. Sometimes, however, the parties of an electoral alliance split up after the election and join different political groups in the European Parliament. In this case, the parties are listed individually and a plausibility assumption is made about the distribution of seats on the joint list. This concerns the following parties: Italy: SI (place 1 and 3 on the list) and EV (2, 4); Spain: ERC (1, 3-4), Bildu (2) and BNG (5); PNV (1) and CC (2); Poland: PL2050 (1, 3, 5 etc.) and KP (2, 4, 6 etc.); Netherlands: GL (1, 3, 5 etc.) and PvdA (2, 4, 6 etc.); CU (1, 3-4) and SGP (2, 5); Hungary: Fidesz (1-6, from 8) and KDNP (7); Slovakia: PS (1) and D (2). Moreover, it is assumed that among the members of the Spanish political alliance Sumar, two thirds will join the Left and one third will join the Greens/EFA group.
In France, several centre-left parties (LFI, PS, EELV, PCF) have joined forces to form the electoral alliance NUPES for the 2022 national parliamentary election. However, it is unlikely that this alliance will last in the next European election. In the projection, therefore, the poll ratings or electoral results of the alliance are divided among the individual parties according to the ratio of the average poll ratings of the parties in the most recent polls that showed them individually.
Since there is no electoral threshold for European elections in Germany, parties can win a seat in the European Parliament with less than 1 per cent of the vote. Since German polling institutes do not usually report values for very small parties, the projection includes them based on their results at the last European election (2 seats each for PARTEI and FW, 1 seat each for Tierschutzpartei, ödp, Piraten, Volt and Familienpartei). Only if a small party achieves a better value in current polls than in the last European election, the poll rating is used instead.
In Italy, a special rule makes it easier for minority parties to enter the European Parliament. In the projection, the Südtiroler Volkspartei is therefore always listed with its result at the last European election (1 seat).
The following overview lists the data source for each member state. The dates refer to the last day of the fieldwork; if this is not known, to the day of publication of the polls:
Germany: national polls, 4-15/7/2023, source: Wikipedia.
France: European election polls, 26/6-5/7/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Italy: national polls, 6-14/7/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Spain: national polls, 4-16/7//2023, source: Wikipedia.
Poland: national polls, 2-13/7/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Romania: national polls, June 2023, source: Wikipedia.
Netherlands: national polls, 16/7/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Greece: results of the national parliamentary election, 25/6/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Belgium, Dutch-speaking community: regional polls (Flanders) for the national parliamentary election, 6/6/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Belgium, French-speaking community: regional polls (Wallonia) for the national parliamentary election, 6/6/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Belgium, German-speaking community: results of the European election, 26/5/2019.
Portugal: national polls, 6/7/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Czech Republic: national polls, 2/5-2/6/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Hungary: national polls, 10-13/6/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Sweden: national polls, 25/5-7/6/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Austria: national polls, 12/7/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Bulgaria: national polls, 26/6-9/7/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Denmark: national polls, 25/6/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Finland: national polls, 4-15/7/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Slovakia: national polls, 16-28/6/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Ireland: national polls, 23/6-1/7/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Croatia: national polls, 4-9/7/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Lithuania: national polls, 29/6/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Latvia: national polls, June 2023, source: Wikipedia.
Slovenia: national polls, 6/7/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Estonia: national polls, 13-20/6/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Cyprus: first round results of the national presidential election, 5/2/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Luxembourg: national polls, 6/4/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Malta: national polls, 19/5/2023, source: Wikipedia.
Pictures: All graphs: Manuel Müller.

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